Research for 2018

Market Commentary December 2018

03-12-2018

Bulls are an ebullient bunch. Despite the stock market antics of the last few months, they have already moved on to the potential for a December rally. And they have history on their side. For the stock market tends to follow a predictable pattern in December. The first two weeks are characterised b [...]

Market Commentary November 2018

12-11-2018

The second part of the “Sell in May” phenomenon (“Buy after Halloween”) should bring some much needed relief to the markets. Anomalies such as this are not uncommon in financial markets, but they tend not to persist for long - as soon as they are known about they are usually arbitraged out o [...]

Market Commentary October 2018

08-10-2018

Despite its reputation for volatility (since 1984, seven of the ten largest one-day falls in the market have occurred in the month of October), for the most part the market posts a positive return - rising 0.9% on average 76% of the time. This strength may not be unconnected with the fact that the s [...]

Market Commentary September 2018

11-09-2018

After summer the stock market tends to burst back into life in September. Unfortunately, the renewed activity in shares tends to be on the downside. Since 1984, the FTSE 100 index has an average return of -1.2% in this month; this gives September the worst record for shares for any month of the year [...]

Market Commentary August 2018

06-08-2018

“Leave me alone, for August’s sleepy charm is on me, and I will not break the spell”. So wrote legendary author and poet Edith Nesbit, but this sentiment is not so far from the general attitude seen on many trading desks. We are not, of course, referring to our own industrious colleagues. In t [...]

Regional REIT 4.5% 06/08/2024

26-07-2018

Please find some complementary research on the Regional REIT 4.5% 06/08/2024 bond. Regional REIT Limited (“RGL”) is an investment trust listed on the LSE with a NAV of £393m that invests and manages high quality commercial properties predominantly in principal UK regions, outside of London. [...]

Market Commentary July 2018

09-07-2018

The old stock market adage, “Sell in May and go away” continues, “don’t come back till St Leger Day”. However, analysis of the historic data shows that the worst returns over this period occur in May and June. After June, returns up to St Leger Day (in September) tend to be quite flat. In [...]

Market Commentary June 2018

11-06-2018

With major indices within touching distance of all-time highs, we sense that investor unease is rising. Articles about the seasonal “sell in May and go away” phenomenon litter the financial press whilst heightened political issues in Italy and Spain, renewed trade tensions and continued Brexit u [...]

Market Commentary May 2018

14-05-2018

The second quarter of the year has begun in positive fashion following the sharp sell-off seen in Q1 with major global equity markets now in positive territory year-to-date, and within touching distance of their January highs. Investor confidence is being rebuilt and sanity has returned to the marke [...]

Market Commentary April 2018

09-04-2018

After a spectacular January rally, a brutal 10% correction, a 60% retracement and a subsequent retracement of the retracement, US equities are back to where they were five months ago. Investors may be tempted to paraphrase Shakespeare and treat market gyrations as “a tale full of sound and fury, s [...]

Market Commentary March 2018

05-03-2018

Investors will be happy to put February in the rear view mirror. More than the actual decline, investors will take away the stomach-churning memory of the free fall early in the month, where the S&P 500 lost nearly 11% from its late January peak to the end of the first week of February. The bigger c [...]

Market Commentary February 2018

05-02-2018

Last week the Dow Jones fell 665 points to end the day down more than 2.5% and falling below 26,000, the record level it hit on 17th January. It was the first time since June 2016 that the Dow had fallen more than 500 points. This is certainly bringing edgier conditions to the market than investors [...]

Market Commentary January 2018

15-01-2018

We wish all our clients a very Happy New Year and all the best for 2018. For stock market investors, 2017 will be remembered as a remarkable year with the all-important US economy posting another year of growth, making this recovery the third-longest in the post-WWII era. Stock markets finished the [...]